Multiple Linear Regression Modelling for Mustard Yield Forecasting in Haryana

Agriculture nowadays has become highly input and cost-intensive. Under the changed scenario today, forecasting of various aspects relating to agriculture are becoming more essential. However, despite a strong need for reliable and timely forecasts, the current status is far from satisfactory. The present study compares the efficacy of Multiple Linear Regression Models in quantifying the pre-harvest mustard yield in Hisar, Bhiwani, Sirsa, Fatehabad, Mahendragarh, Rewari, Jhajjar and Gurugram districts of Haryana. The objective of this study was to assess the forecast accuracy of the contending models for district-level mustard yield forecasts in Haryana. The fortnightly weather data on rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature over the crop growth period (September-October to February-March) have been utilized from 1980-81 to 2010-11 for the models’ building. The weather-yield data from 2011-12 to 2015-16 have been used to check the post-sample validity of the fitted models for mustard yield forecasts in comparison to those obtained from State Department of Agriculture crop yield(s) estimates.

Ajay Kumar1, Raj Kumar*2, Satish Manda3 and Shikha Bhukal4 Click here to download file

Research Article | Published online : 11-Apr-2025